Republican Senator John McCain sharing a platform with the Democrat’s John Kerry
With all bets you have to ask yourself whether the possiblity of something happening is greater than the odds that are available.
With just seven weeks to go before the Democratic party convention in Boston an online bookmaker has now opened a market on who the Democratic contender, John Kerry, will choose as his running mate. The favourite at the moment is John Edwards – the youthful Senator from North Carolina who did so well in the primaries.
But the idea that a Republican, Arizona Senator John McCain, could be Kerry’s choice with them running on a bipartisan ticket continues to intrigue America.
The proposition was tested in a recent poll that showed:-
McCain, of course, is no stranger to fighting Bush. He was defeated for the Republican nomination four years ago and is no friend of the current incumbent of the White House. Both he and Kerry are Vietnam veterans and both have co-operated on a number of legislative issues. Kerry regularly features his close links with McCain in his campaign.
But is this what Kerry wants and would McCain do it? It also raises issues such as what would happen if circumstances meant that McCain had to take over the presidency – would you then get a Republic administration back?
The most compelling reason why we think that the chances of this happening are better than 14-1 is that a Kerry-McCain ticket is the certain way of beating Bush in November.
This is why we think that the current price represents really excellent value. However, PaddyPower, the bookmaker will not let you invest more than £24
In the meantime the main polls continue to have Kerry and Bush level-pegging or Kerry just ahead. Bush’s personal popularity remains well below 50% and a number of commentators have observed that no incumbent President has gone on to be re-elected if his personal ratings have dropped below half during the election year. Our call on Kerry at prices above 2.1 and above remains.
One event, the Republican Convention in New York in August, is likely to play a very major part. There are already concerns about security and that this will be the focus of huge anti-war and anti-Bush demonstrations. People are recalling the huge disturbances at the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago that was over-shadowed by the Vietnam war. Whether this would help or hinder the Bush campaign is not clear but the notion of a cross-party Kerry-McCain ticket might be just what America is looking for in these divided times. BET.
6 AM UPDATE Since this was posted last night PaddyPower has taken John McCain off their list of V-P “runners”. They will probably review the situation during the day and put him back on at a much reduced price. The Irish-based betting exchange that is foucssed on the US, Tradesports, has the “none of the above” option at the equivalent of about 5. It does not have a specific price for McCain.