The ICM approval ratings break-down

The above tables are from the detailed data in the latest ICM poll and show the three main approval findings breaking down the answers on current voting intention and, for the Lib Dems, an extra row on how those who supported the party at the general election are thinking.

It’s that gap that’s interesting showing quite a different response from current LD supporters and those who voted for the party on May 6th.

So less than half of general election Lib Dem voters now think the coalition is doing a good job - yet 61% give a positive rating Clegg rising to 78% amongst those who are sticking with the party.

The general election LD voters are also quite happy with Cameron - with a 58-38 “good job/bad job” split for the prime minister. With current party supporters that rises to 68-26.

Given they’ve lost a fair bit of support since May it’s not surprising that there’s a marked difference between general election LD voters and current ones - but the gap is not as wide as the current media and political narrative is suggesting.

This is, of course, the data from just one poll with all the usual caveats.

Mike Smithson

YouGov

The government’s net approval rating drops to zero

The big polling news in the past twenty-fours hours has been the move to a zero rating, for the first time since the election, in the YouGov government approval rating.

The question is a straightforward “Do you approve or disapprove of the government’s record to date?” The latest numbers were 40% approve and 40% disapprove.

These figures started falling back for the coalition at the time of the budget and have edged downwards ever since.

A big problem with comparative figures is that the online pollster implemented a comprehensive change of weightings at exactly the same time which had a marked impact on its voting intention numbers.

But even with that there is no doubt about the downwards in the approval ratings which no look set to negative in the next week or so.

The only other pollster that asks government approval questions in a standard form every month, Ipsos-MORI, has also been showing a decline - the latest showed a three point positive.

I think that going negative, particularly if it is backed up by MORI which has an unchanged methodology, will be a significant moment.

Mike Smithson

Ipsos-MORI

But does MORI give a bit of a relief to the yellows?

In the build up to what one commentator is now calling “Super Thursday” - the elections on May 5th 2011 - we are going to see a fair bit of polling. For on that that day there’ll be elections to the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament, local councils in many parts of England as well as the planned referendum on the alternative vote.

Ipsos-MORI has just published the above charts from its latest Scottish poll which is, of course, held under a form of PR. These are how the two parts of the Scottish election finished up in May 2007.

As can be seen the big gainer is the red team while the SNP are polling reasonably well with the Tories taking the biggest hit compared to the last elections.

Given everything that’s happened since C-Day on May 11th Nick Clegg’s party won’t feel too uncomfortable with the numbers.

For although they are down a bit in the constituency section they are polling better than the 2007 outcome in the list section. Interestingly it was the same pattern for the party in the most recent polling on the Welsh Assembly election.

Super Thursday will be the first national electoral test for the coalition and the outcome of the range of elections might just impact on its continuation.

Mike Smithson

SkyNews

What could it do to the SNP’s re-election chances?

It’s exactly a year ago today that the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, Abdel Basset al-Megrahi, was freed on compassionate grounds by the SNP-led Scottish government after receiving a doctor’s report saying that he had only got three months to live.

We all remember the row and how it has continued to erupt as we saw during David Cameron’s visit to Washington last month.

One report today suggests that the SNP might have to get used to these anniversaries - for it’s said that Megrahi could survive for another seven years. That, to say the least, is somewhat at variance with the medical advice on which last year’s decision was taken.

The SNP are clearly sensitive about the matter and last night issued the findings of a poll of Scottish voters commissioned and paid for by the party from YouGov. Interestingly this didn’t ask whether the release decision was correct - rather it focused on the US senate investigation.

The YG polling panel split 72-20 on this “Abdel Baset al-Megrahi was convicted of the Lockerbie bombing in 2001. In 2009 he was released by the Scottish Government’s Justice Secretary on compassionate grounds, having been diagnosed with terminal prostate cancer. US senate committee invited representatives of the Scottish government to appear before their committee to explain their decision. The Scottish government declined to attend, on the grounds that they are accountable to the Scottish Parliament, not to US politicians. Do you agree or disagree with Scottish government’s decision not to attend?”

I am sure that I am not the only one to think that the form of the question is far too long and is leading.

The big political question is how this is going to impact on next May’s elections to the Scottish parliament. In 2007 the SNP came out as top party and since then has ruled as a minority. Will a resurgent Labour party win back power?

Mike Smithson