How can he compete with the likable Boris?

There’s a new ComRes poll for the London mayoralty which has, in the final two forced choice, Boris beating Ken by 53% to 47%.

More interesting, given the importance of leader ratings in predicting outcomes, are the like him/like his party responses with ComRes using the format that was developed by Ipsos-MORI.

As can be seen Boris has a massive likability lead over Ken and if the official LAB man makes the final two then he’ll be beaten.

The most striking numbers are the like him but not his party ones. Quite simply Labour have a candidate who is not liked.

The last time that happened was in the Scottish election last May where Labour was leading in the voting intention polls until ten days before voting. The leader numbers told a different story. On the day, of course, SLAB got smashed and Salmond secured an overall majority at Holyrood.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

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Sean Fear asks if this is a big chance for LAB?

The London Mayoral contest rightly commands the lion’s share of public attention. There is, however, another set of elections, due to take place on May 3rd, for the London Assembly. The Assembly is a fairly toothless body, but it does offer a high profile to its members, some of whom, such as Bob Blackman, Angie Bray, Meg Hillier, and Bob Neil, have made their way into Parliament.

The Assembly has 14 members who represent constituencies, elected by first past the post. In addition, a further 11 members are elected on a London-wide basis, by proportional representation. In 2008, the Conservatives won 11 seats, including 8 constituencies. Labour won 8, including 6 constituencies. The Liberal Democrats won 3 top up seats, the Greens 2, and the BNP 1. How will the parties fare this time?

There have been no polls of voting intention for the Assembly. However, Yougov’s most recent Mayoral poll gives Westminster voting intentions for London of Labour 46%, Conservative 34%, Liberal Democrat 9%, UKIP 5%, Greens 3%, Others 3%. It is probably unlikely that the Conservatives and Labour will take 80% of the vote between them in the Assembly elections, but it is entirely plausible that Labour will lead the Conservatives by 12% at constituency level (minor parties can expect to gain at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour in the top-up seats). This would represent a swing of 10.5%, compared to 2008.

Were that to be the outcome, Labour could expect to hold all six of its current seats, with increased majorities. These are City and East, Lambeth and Southwark, North East, Greenwich and Lewisham, Enfield and Haringey, and Brent and Harrow. The last two produced very tight contests in 2000, 2004, and 2008, but both should be comfortably held by Labour this time round.

The Conservatives can expect to hold Croydon and Sutton, South West, West Central, Bromley and Bexley, and Havering and Redbridge. They are vulnerable in Barnet and Camden, Merton and Wandsworth, and Ealing and Hillingdon, all of which would fall to Labour on a 10.5% swing. In my view, Barnet and Camden is very likely to fall, as it requires a swing of only 5.5% to Labour, and incumbent Brian Coleman is unpopular among London Conservatives. Ealing and Hillingdon would fall on an 8.1% swing. The Conservatives have 70 councillors in the two boroughs, compared to 69 for Labour, so it will be very tight. In my view, Labour will be slight favourites in this seat, given the ongoing swing to Labour since 2010. An 8% swing would see Labour take Merton and Wandsworth as well, but the Conservatives are completely dominant at local level in both Wandsworth and Wimbledon, which should make them slight favourites to retain the seat.

Therefore, I would expect Labour to win 8 constituencies, to 6 for the Conservatives.
Both Labour and the Conservatives can expect to gain additional top up seats. If Labour were to win 40% or so, at top up level, they could expect to gain a further 4 seats. If the Conservatives were to win 30% or so, they could expect to win 2 more seats. That would leave Labour on 12, and the Conservatives on 8.

The Liberal Democrats and the Greens will be battling for third place. 9% or so would see the Liberal Democrats awarded 2 seats. The Greens are below the 5% threshold in Westminster voting intentions, but they won 8% across London in the local elections of 2010. I would expect them to match that in May, and retain their 2 seats. The BNP have collapsed over the past couple of years, and are most unlikely to retain their seat on the Assembly. I would expect this seat to be won by UKIP, who will likely pick up some white working class voters who backed the BNP in 2008, together with Conservatives who are unhappy with the Coalition.

Sean Fear is a London Conservative and has contributed many guest pieces to PB

Is this his plan to get Cameron’s job?

In an article published at midnight in Prospect magazine the mayor of London refuses to rule out the possibility of standing as an MP during a second term as mayor.

It’s believed that this is the first he has raised doubts over what he would do if he does secure a second term.

The article quotes Johnson as saying: “Look, what I have said is that I won’t go on [as mayor] after eight years,” Johnson said when pressed. “I think you can go on too long.” What about cutting short the eight years? “No.” So he will serve a full second term? “You betcha!” Suddenly, he sounds more like the Wodehousian figure many adore. Asked whether he could serve as both an MP and mayor, he declined to comment but gave a low laugh.

Across almost the full range of bookies Johnson is the favourite to become next Tory leader in spite of the fact that he’s not been an MP since May 2008, when he stepped after winning the mayoralty.

To many this has always seemed improbable simply because party leaders are MPs and the different electoral cycles for general elections and for the mayoralty don’t work for Boris. Thus if he gets elected next May then his term at City Hall would run until May 2016. The next general election is set to take place on May 7th 2015.

It strikes me that this latest article could present a problem for Boris in the coming mayoral election – is he fully committed to the job? No doubt he’ll be pressed on this time and time again

The Prospect article also has Johnson vowing to continue opposing the government on a long list of issues including “housing, policing, transport infrastructure, aviation, and the burden of taxation.”

Prospect also says it’s learned of a fresh divide between the mayor and the prime minister: Johnson opposes Cameron’s policy of evicting rioters who live in council flats.

There’s some new polling that suggests that Boris is heading for victory in spite of the fact that in London Labour is well ahead on Westminster voting intentions. According to new figures released in a Prospect/YouGov study, one in five Londoners who would vote Labour in a general election plan to vote for Boris for mayor.

This is in line with a PB analysis in June which also had one in five Labour voters supporting the incumbent.

@MikeSmithsonPB

Will the old bruiser win his job back

We’ve not looked at it for some time but one of the key battles next year will be for the Mayor of London. Every single elector throughout the capital can vote in what is a massive election.

Boris Johnson won the crown in 2008 at a time when the popularity of the Tories was at a height and Labour was down in the doldrums. Nearly 2,5m people voted, a turnout of 45%, with Boris having a share of 53.17% to Ken’s 46.73% once the second preferences were allocated.

Since then, of course, things have changed sharply and if the election mirrored the current national Westminster voting intention polls then Ken would be a certainty.

A victory for the red team in fifteen months time would be a huge boost to EdM as he looks forward to the general election. The question is whether it’s going to happen.

My guess is that it’s going to be a lot tighter than that. Boris’s victory three years ago came in spite of big propaganda campaign suggesting that he was a buffoon with warnings of dire consequences if he won.

Since then, of course, he’s been in charge and things have be nothing like as bad as the doomsday scenario that papers like the Guardian tried to make out.

Incumbency in these elected mayor elections seems to count for an awful lot. Ken himself won a second term in 2004 after a large number of Tories in the GLA elections held at the same time switched to him for the top job.

Could the same thing happen in reverse? Will Boris get an incumbency bonus?

So far punters seem to think so. Betfair have the Tory at 4/5.

Mike Smithson