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Month: October 2014

EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

EXCLUSIVE: Survation has Mark Reckless moving to a 15% lead in Rochester

The local NHS rather than immigration the top issue for Rochester voters ahead of by-election. See Survation chart pic.twitter.com/lwBuP0ntNe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Some good news for UKIP after its PCC by-election flop There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood. The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday): CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP…

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After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result

After yesterday’s dramatic Scottish polls LAB braces itself for the South Yorks PCC result

UKIP poster S Yorks PCC election pic.twitter.com/KJCY4epfQw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2014 Is this another victory for the purples? The big news this morning should come from South Yorkshire where counting takes place in the Police and Crime Commissioner by-election – only the second to be held since these new elected positions were created two years ago. This has been set against the background of the Rotherham scandal which UKIP (see above) has been featuring strongly in its…

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More gloom for Scottish LAB from YouGov – but not quite as bad as Ipsos-MORI

More gloom for Scottish LAB from YouGov – but not quite as bad as Ipsos-MORI

Times/YouGov Scotland: How much do you trust: Nicola Sturgeon: 48% Gordon Brown: 37% Jim Murphy: 24% David Cameron: 19% Ed Miliband: 15% — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 30, 2014 Times/YouGov Scotland How much do you trust Ed Miliband now: (compared with Sept 17) Total Trust: 15% (25%) Total not Trust: 80% (67%) — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) October 30, 2014 Whilst the SNP lead and share of the vote isn’t as impressive as the Ipsos-Mori figures, they will still be delighted with these figures and Labour…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

Local By-Election Preview : October 30th 2014

Canvey Island East on Castle Point (Canvey Island Independent Defence) Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 20, Canvey Island Independents 16, United Kingdom Independence Party 5 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 1) Result of ward at last election (2012): Canvey Island Independent 595 (48%), Conservative 291 (23%), Independent 195 (16%), Labour 158 (13%) Candidates duly nominated: Colin Letchford (Ind), Chas Mumford (Con), John Payne (Canvey Island Independent), Jackie Reilly (Lab) Castle Point Conservatives must be scratching their…

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SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI

SNP take 29% lead over LAB in new Scottish poll from Ipsos-MORI

LAB could be down to just 4 seats @IpsosMORI chart showing the detail of their sensational Scottish poll. pic.twitter.com/3w4Tpu9Pj3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 Electoral Calculus has LAB down to just 4 Scots MPs if it votes at GE15 as in today's Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll. pic.twitter.com/FSkxbrUSRJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014 At the Holyrood election in May 2011 @IpsosMORI was the most accurate pollster. All came top = on the IndyRef — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October…

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Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

Why the GRN voters might not swing back to LAB at GE15 even in the marginals

When pressed on constituency question just 10% switch to red Today’s YouGov of CON 31, LAB 34, LD 6, UKIP 17, GRN 7 highlights the need to analyse what is happening to the GRN vote and what might happen in the key battlegrounds that will decide GE15. As ever the main source of published data is from Lord Ashcroft. The aggregation of a series of constituency polls means that sub-samples can be large enough to draw conclusions with a reasonable…

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Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concerns about health and immigration rise as the economy drops to six year low in the Ipsos-MORI issues index

Concern about the NHS jumps by 9% in Oct Ipsos-MORI Issues index. Now 2nd only to immigration. pic.twitter.com/1YNbLZ86iL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about the economy drops to lowest level for more than 6 years in latest Ips0s-MORI Issues pic.twitter.com/d6m97umbU9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Concern about immigration moves to 6 year high in latest Ipsos-MORI Issues index pic.twitter.com/jgwkRPyEt8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2014 Ipsos-MORI Issues index has for 40 years regarded as…

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