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Unless Salmond can find a way of turning the oldies in the remaining 14 days independence will be lost

September 3rd, 2014

Scotland’s battle is generational and the oldies will prevail

We all know that the older you are the more likely it is that you’ll be on the electoral register and the greater the chance it is that you’ll actually vote.

In the chart above, based on data from the latest Survation IndyRef poll, I’ve tried to show how much NO is dependent on the oldies. The chart looks at the percentage of the overall NO vote that is coming from each generation.

As can be seen the biggest contributor of support for NO by far is from the 65+ group and, to a lesser extent, the 55-64 segment.

Across all the polling that we’ve seen the older generation has remained solid for Scotland to remain in the UK. Indeed in yesterday’s YouGov poll we saw an increase in support for NO from the oldest voters.

We also know from other polling that the older you are the less likely it is that you will change your mind. That relates to all elections and not just the referendum.

Although the general trend has been towards a closer result my reading is that the oldies will prevail.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble