— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2014
The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated
One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of Â£50 you have to risk Â£300.
A far better wager has just been made available by Ladbrokes.Odds of 10/11 (almost evens) that the referendum will be lost and that the turnout will be lower than 80%.
That was the turnout prediction that Alex Salmond made in Monday night’s debate which to my mind is on the high side. At the Holyrood elections in 2011 the level was 50%. A year earlier at the general election 63.8% of electors voted north of the border.
What’s driving the high turnout prediction for September 18th has been the certainty to vote levels in the referendum polls. Ipsos-MORI, the only phone pollster, had this at 81% in its last survey.
But you have to distinguish between the turnout certainty of those ready to take part in a polling interview or fill in an online questionnaire and the electorate as a whole.
The very fact that people are happy to be polled, I’d suggest, inflates the certainty level.
I think that turnout three weeks tomorrow will be high, certainly in the 70s, but I’d be very surprised if it hit the levels seen in the polls.
I’ve had a bet with Ladbrokes at 10/11 and plan to put more on.