Yesterday’s batch of Lord Ashcroft polls of key CON-LAB marginals is further evidence that the betting price on CON majority is far too tight and that on a LAB one too long.
It is very hard looking at all the voter dynamics to make any case whatsoever for a CON majority. Time is passing quickly and there’s nothing at all from the seats that will decide this election that the Tories are going to better their 2010 performance. Rather it is completely the reverse.
One of the seats polled, Bedford, was won by the Tories at GE2010 by a 3% margin. It is a seat where I stood 22 years ago and which I know well. My own reading before the poll was that the LAB lead would be in double figures – Ashcroft had it at 10%.
This is a massive margin for the Tories to make up and if they cannot hold onto Bedford then there will be no majority for the blues.
As things stand at the moment there are only two possible outcomes to GE2010 – a LAB majority or a hung parliament. Once you rule out a CON majority then betting on the other options looks very attractive.
I’ve now started for the first time putting money on a LAB majority simply because at odds of 2/1 or longer it is a great value bet.
I am well covered on a hung parliament.