Even though the last 3 polls have edged a touch to an IndyRef YES the betting is still strongly on NO

August 19th, 2014

Apart from a little pre-debate burst the markets remain stable

Given the spate of polls over the weekend all showing that YES was edging up I was half-expecting a rally in the YES price on Betfair. It did move a touch but it is now back in the 6.8-7 range which in percentage terms converts to a 14-15% implied probability.

The next event that could move things is the BBC TV debate next Monday. Salmond, surely will have learned from his first experience and have developed a better strategy. No doubt Darling and his team will be giving serious thought to their approach.

Betting remains buoyant. As I write a total of £1.716m has been matched on Betfair which is very high for any political market four and a half weeks out.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble