Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

August 11th, 2014

This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% LAB one now.

Later in the day I’m hoping that we should see the ICM Guardian poll which in July had CON 34. LAB 33, LD 12, UKIP 9. I’ve not had confirmation yet that this will be out but this is the normal point n the month when it appears.

Over the past four months we have see a handful of cross-overs but none have been sustained to the next poll from the same pollster. Could it just happen with ICM?

And how are we going to define a cross-over?

Mike Smithson

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