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The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

August 7th, 2014

The time for recovery is getting shorter

The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll.

The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance. In hour before Tuesday night’s event it was in the 20-24% – so the latest betting reflects a significant fall.

YES has been lower than this on Betfair but only £36 has been matched a prices that reflect longer odds. That’s absolute chickenfeed in a market that’s already seen a total of £1.316m matched.

The problem was, of course, was that Tuesday night had been billed beforehand by many in the YES camp as the moment when the tide would turn. Salmond was going to come out of this triumphant and his accusations that NO’s case was based on “scaremongering” would hit home.

Yet that didn’t happen and Salmond’s personal attacks on Darling went down badly.

But this can change. In the next debate Salmond, surely, will have learned some lessons and a victory for the SNP leader could be on the cards.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble