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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

August 2nd, 2014

For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”.

The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros.

Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May 22nd EP elections the firm had the party on 32% – which was five points more than actually happened.

So the fact that, as seen in the PB polling average for July reported on by David Herdson in the last thread, the firm is showing UKIP on the decline is noteworthy. You have to go back as far as February 2013 to find an Opinium Westminster poll with UKIP at a lower level than tonight’s 15%.

A challenge for the party is that it is finding it a lot harder to get media attention as during the build-up to May 22nd. Then, of course, UKIP had been classified as a “major party” by OFCOM which meant that it got substantially greater coverage on radio and TV.

The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that Farage’s party gets squeezed much further as the focus will all be on the LAB-CON ahead for GE2015.

By 63% to 19% those polled by Opinium said they want NO to win the Scottish IndyRef.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble