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The GE2015 seat split based on the latest PaddyPower line betting

July 31st, 2014

If this was the outcome Cameron could sit tight

We are going to see a lot of projected commons numbers like the ones in the chart above in the next ten months.

What’s showing here are the buy levels for the three main parties on PaddyPower and as can be seen neither CON nor LAB would have a majority and would probably try to cobble together some deal to see themselves through.

    What the chart doesn’t show is that it’s likely that if this was the result the Tories would have a bigger national vote share while LAB would have the edge on seats.

The reasons are the boundaries and, most of all, much lower turnout levels in LAB heartlands compared with CON ones. The latter is what most impacts on the aggregate national vote shares.

That could create a lot of problems for the Lib Dems if they sought to go in with LAB a party that lost on votes.

An intriguing feature of such an outcome is that Cameron could sit tight and wouldn’t have to leave Downing Street. It would be only if/when LAB put together some sort of arrangements that would take them over the 325 seat mark that Dave would have to go to the Palace.

My reading of LAB is that the party would find it very challenging try to do deal with the LDs. If the LDs did get 34 seats then Clegg would probably stay – something that LAB would find it hard to swallow.

A fresh general election within a few months? Probably not because the Fixed Term Parliament act would make it difficult.

I’ve got 10/1 on a new CON-LD coalition and 12/1 on a hung parliament no coalition deal bets.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble