Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

July 28th, 2014

General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON?

For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week.

Last week YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UKPR crunched the data from the 100 or so Populus online polls that there have been and found an average LAB lead of 3.1% of Friday and a 3.8% one on Mondays.

As the chart shows in recent weeks the gap between the two days has got wider

I don’t have an explanation but if. indeed, those polled are more predisposed to CON mid-week than at the weekend then I’d suggest that it is good for the Tories that GE2015 is, as per usual, on a Thursday.

Today’s Populus poll.

UPDATE: Today’s Ashcroft national poll

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble