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While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

July 27th, 2014

The pollster that last August had YES ahead now has NO 8% lead

In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings

Since then the firm has been part of the group including Survation and ICM that has tended to have YES in better positions. TNS and YouGov have usually shown the worst figures.

    So this morning’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times will come as a huge disappointment for those campaigning for Scotland to vote for independence in the referendum on September 18th. Time is running out.

Also in the poll 17% said they “would think about emigrating in the event of a YES vote” while 43% said they thought Scotland would be poorer with 36% saying richer.

The serious campaign has yet to start and the hope for YES backers is that this could still turn things round.

Punters, however, are increasingly moving to NO. The last trade on Betfair as I write made NO an 85.5% chance.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter