It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

July 27th, 2014

Yesterday my wife was telephone polled for what appeared to be a seat specific survey in Bedford where we live. This is LAB target number 24 and was won by the Tories with a 3% majority in 2010.

Judging by the format of the questions the interview followed the same pattern as all his other marginals’ polling.

To me what’s interesting is that he appears to be moving up the scale to take in seats where the Tories have bigger majorities than those seats which he has polled twice in his first two rounds. This makes a lot of sense.

    The big GE2015 question is at what point will Lord Ashcroft find CON holds rather than losses? This will give us a better sense of what the outcome might be.

We have never had available such deep and intensive marginals’ polling before and it is great that Lord Ashcroft is happy to invest in this. This will really add to our understanding of the election and what is going on.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble