— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2014
My current reading is that UKIP returnees will gradually boost CON shares while LAB will retain almost all the 2010 LD switchers which has been the bed-rock of their polling for nearly four years.
This means that in terms of national vote shares the outcome will be very tight.
The voting patterns that see much lower turnout levels in LAB heartlands and LAB doing poorly in safe CON seats will continue meaning that EdM’s party doesn’t need to lead on national vote share to secure most MPs.
The Tories, however, are going to struggle to win many of the LD seats that national swing calculations suggest they will. This means that a CON national vote lead of 3%+ is not going to guarantee a lead on seats.
I got on the Ladbrokes bet at 8/1. That’s now 4/1 and still remains value.