For the first time UKIP move into the favourite slot in a Westminster seat

July 23rd, 2014

South Thanet heading to be a great 3-way tussle

I love Westminster seats battles where at least three parties are in with a shout. The betting on them can be very interesting and chances are that you’ll get longer than evens on the winner.

South Thanet in Kent, won from LAB by pro-EU Tory, Laura Sandys, in May looks set to be the most polled single constituency there is. So far I’m aware of three public polls being carried out which respectively have had LAB, CON and now UKIP in the lead.

Laura Sandys is standing down at the election so there will be no first time incumbency bonus for the Tories. Her replacement on the CON ticket is a former leader of UKIP. Meanwhile LAB will be hoping that the seat will be returned to the red camp after a short absence.

Who knows which way it will go? A Farage candidature could lead to anti-UKIP tactical voting. A lot for him depends on maintaining the momentum of the Euros – something which has faded away in the past.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble