Yet again the Ashcroft national phone poll has surprised us. This time with a 5% drop in CON support, 2% drop for LAB and a 3% increase for UKIP. Last week the Ashcroft figures were Con 32%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%
This compares with the earlier Populus online phone poll that had the LAB lead moving from zero to 5%. Both are featured in the chart above.
The Ashcroft changes are bigger than the margin of error and this is his first national poll since the re-shuffle.
It is perhaps worth emphasising that neither the Ashcroft national poll nor the Populus online one have been tested at a general election.