Jacques Parizrau, Quebec PM & leader of Parti Québécois resigned in 1995 the day after his referendum defeat pic.twitter.com/VEcUryX2vv
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2014
NON won by just over 1%
As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of up to 6% for OUI.
Whether we can extrapolate anything from this is hard to say – I’ll tell you on September 19th.
What we do know from that election is that the turnout was a massive 94% and my guess is that in Scotland it is going to be very high. I’m on 75% or more on Betfair.
In the latest ICM Scotland poll 65% agreed that “In my experience, people are much more interested in the debate about independence than they ever are in what the parties have to say at election time” 15% disagreed. Those voting YES split 79%-12%.
In Quebec there was a huge split between the Francphones and the Anglophones with the former being far more supportive. In Scotland there’s a similar split between those born there and those born elsewhere.
Jacques Parizrau, the Quebec PM and leader of Parti Québécois resigned on the day after the result. Somehow I don’t expect Salmond would do the same.