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In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

July 3rd, 2014

NON won by just over 1%

As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of up to 6% for OUI.

Whether we can extrapolate anything from this is hard to say – I’ll tell you on September 19th.


    What we do know from that election is that the turnout was a massive 94% and my guess is that in Scotland it is going to be very high. I’m on 75% or more on Betfair.

In the latest ICM Scotland poll 65% agreed that “In my experience, people are much more interested in the debate about independence than they ever are in what the parties have to say at election time” 15% disagreed. Those voting YES split 79%-12%.

In Quebec there was a huge split between the Francphones and the Anglophones with the former being far more supportive. In Scotland there’s a similar split between those born there and those born elsewhere.

Jacques Parizrau, the Quebec PM and leader of Parti Québécois resigned on the day after the result. Somehow I don’t expect Salmond would do the same.

Mike Smithson

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