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What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

July 2nd, 2014

Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011.

Just look at the polls in the table above. Even some of the final surveys were showing the SNP with very small margins over LAB. As it turned out in the regional list section Alex Salmond’s party won by a margin of 17%.

So could that possibly happen again? The answer is probably no but I’m not absolutely certain. This is the reason that I maintain a balanced of book on Betfair that is all in the green. Whatever happens in the election I win.

This follows several months or trading when I’ve been betting on either side when I have thought that the odds were too long. Sometimes this works – sometimes it doesn’t.

Mike Smithson

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