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The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

June 30th, 2014

LAB’s chances now rated at below 30%

We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority.

Check on the chart above to see how things have changed since the budget. A LAB majority down from nearly 40% to 29.8%; CON majority up nearly 5% to above 44% and the Tories rated by the markets as a 25.6% chance.

Just to note that these are calculated by taking the last traded price on Betfair and expressing it as a percentage.

For value Tory punters can do far better by going onto the single constituency markets. Labour punters are best served by risking their cash on the national outcome.

I’ve not yet gone in but if the LAB majority price edges a bit down further we’ll reach a stage where it is a really good value bet.

Upcoming polling: This afternoon there’ll be the Lord Ashcroft phone poll followed by another phone poll later in the evening. Tomorrow sees Lord Ashcroft publishing his LAB-LD marginals survey.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble