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Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

June 30th, 2014

If this was the only marginals polling about LAB would be pressing the panic button

In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. 25 of the seats included currently have CON MPs – the other 15 LAB ones.

When analysing all poll findings from the marginals the key thing is the comparison with what happened in the same seats at GE2010.

    So although this is positive for LAB and shows improvement on the May poll the swing of 2.5% on the last general election is nothing like on the scale required and on these figures they would struggle to get most seats.

The swing is far lower than that coming out of current national polls or what other recent surveys of the marginals have found. With an online sample of 1k it is not on the same scale as the Ashcroft 26k sample phone polling of LAB-CON marginals.

Latest Electoral Calculus projection: LAB majority 48(+20)

Some positive polling news for the LDs on students

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble