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LAB jump 4% to take 9 point lead in first post Juncker voting intention poll

June 29th, 2014

The comparisons in the chart are from Survation poll taken in the days after the May 22nd Euros.

The fact that this poll coincides with a week that saw the Coulson verdict and the Cameron stand-off in the EU over the presidency doesn’t necessarily mean that these events have impacted on voting plans.

    We have always got to be careful not to confuse correlation with causation. We need more polling before we can start to draw any conclusions.

But Labour will be mighty pleased with these numbers particularly after the ongoing attacks that have been coming from all sides, even Miiband’s own party, about his leadership. If EdM is a drag on his party then that isn’t showing up in the voting intention polls.

To the EU referendum voting question Survation found 47% saying they’d vote to leave and 39% saying stay.

Recent research from Manchester Uni found Survation as the most UKIP friendly pollster with shares for the party averaging 4.4% higher

Some points from S Times YouGov carried out before Survation

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble