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Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

June 26th, 2014

If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave

At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015.

    Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave a pretty good pointer to what would happen between the two elections

When the same question was put in the BES study before the 2009 Euros 26.5% of those planning to vote UKIP said they would do the same in the following general election. The actual results from the 2009 Euros and the 2010 general election showed a slip back from 16.2% to 3.2%. When the different turnout levels between the two elections are taken into account that 2009 BES finding stood up pretty well.

So a broad-brush extrapolation from the 27.4% UKIP share from the 2014 Euros points to a UKIP GE2015 share well into double figures – perhaps in the 10-15% range.

The latest BES study also found that of those people intending to vote UKIP at GE2015, 44% voted CON in 2010, 17% voted LD, 11% voted LAB. 9% voted UKIP and 11% didn’t vote. This is in line with other polling that we’ve seen.

So it is hard to conclude other than the Tories will be hit most by a high UKIP vote at GE2015.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble