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On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to LAB switchers that matter most

June 19th, 2014

Why LAB strategists won’t be too worried about EdM’s batch of poor personal numbers

One of the big factors that makes analysing this election so different from the past is the amount of data in the public domain from which we can measure significant sub-groups – like those 2010 LD voters who have switched to LAB.

    As I’ve repeatedly said the LD>LAB switchers represents a bigger shift than the entire increase in the CON vote from 1997 to 2010 and if they remain it is hard to see how CON can secure a majority or even win most seats.

Thanks to Lord Ashcroft’s excellent mega-sample polling now including the LD switchers in specific cross-tabs we can get detailed information about how they are reacting to leaders and other issues.

The chart above from last month’s 26,025 sample Ashcroft polling of LAB-CON marginals shows how these key voters are viewing Ed Miliband.

As can be seen they have a more positive view than the LAB voters in the survey. The 73% satisfaction level is also greater than CON voter views of David Cameron.

  • Later this morning Lord Ashcroft is publishing his polling of the LD-CON battlegrounds.

    Mike Smithson

    Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter