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The ICM poll for the Guardian is out

June 17th, 2014

Labour retakes the lead, whilst the Lib Dems hit a record equalling low with ICM.

As we can see, there’s not a lot for the three established Westminster parties to cheer about in this poll, whilst Labour will delighted to regain the lead with the Gold Standard of British Polling, both their lead and their share of the vote, isn’t that impressive, by contrast, in June 2009, David Cameron’s Tories were polling 39% and had a 12% lead over Labour.

UKIP will be delighted that unlike some other pollsters, post the locals and Euros, their vote share hasn’t fallen back, but increased slightly.

For the Lib Dems, for the pollster which generally has the best and most accurate figures for them, they are back on 10%, which Guardian notes ”is the joint lowest ever captured by ICM, the previous low coming in February this year.”

Lord Ashscroft has just tweeted that he will be publishing his polling in the Lib Dem/Con marginals at 11am on Thursday, if they are equally grim for the Lib Dems, then coupled with this polling, then Nick Clegg’s position may become untenable very shortly. Will Lib Dem MPs remove their leader? Nothing quite focuses the mind than the possibility that you might lose your job soon.

You can back at 9/4 Nick Clegg to be replaced as the Lib Dem leader before the next General Election.

Other things to note from this poll.

  • The combined share of the vote for the big two parties at 63%, its lowest ever recorded by ICM using the telephone method.
  • Ed Miliband’s net satisfaction ratings are still lower than Nick Clegg’s
  • Miliband’s ratings have fallen from minus 25 last month to minus 39 this month. This thought to be largely due to previous don’t knows firming up with a negative opinion of his performance
  • Clegg’s ratings have fallen from minus 21 last month to minus 37 this month.
  • Cameron’s net ratings fall from plus 2 to minus 5, though he is still the best performing leader, doing better than Farage.
  • As the economy improves, so do George Osborne’s ratings, he’s on plus 6. His odds as next Tory leader at 12/1 do look appealing.

TSE