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Newark: A massive win for CON, a setback for UKIP and terrible outcome for LAB and the LDs

June 6th, 2014

The Tories will be relieved at the hold and 8.9% down on their General Election score, and better than was expected but an impressive increase for UKIP but still no win, given the momentum they had from the Euros, and polling less in percentage terms than they did in the Eastleigh by-election, there will be an element of disappointment for the Purples.

For the Lib Dems, another poor by-election performance as they lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament and finish sixth behind the Greens and an Independent.

For Labour, they’ve gone backwards being pushed into third place, and in the past, oppositions have won by-elections with smaller swing than they needed to win tonight.

Mike Smithson says: This should have been Labour’s to take

This is only the third GB by-election this parliament that has not been a LAB defence and EdM’s party should have chucked everything at it. They didn’t and the huge CON campaign clearly convinced anti-UKIP voters that they were the party to stop the purples.

This is what Professor John Curtice had to say earlier as quoted on the Spectator blog:-

“The truth is that they [Labour] should be on tenterhooks as to whether they will win the seat. That swing that they would need, it is less than the Labour Party achieved in Norwich, less than the Conservatives achieved in Norwich in the last Parliament, less than Labour achieved in Dudley West, Wirrel South just before they won the 1997 election. When oppositions look as though they are on course for government, the kind of swing that is required for Labour to win has been relatively common. To that extent, we have to ask ourselves, why is it we are not asking the question, could Labour win this? It is all of a piece, as a result of the recent elections, Labour do not have the enthusiasm and depth of support in the electorate that make them look like an alternative government.”

He’s dead right.

As for the Lib Dems yet another miserable by-election performance.

TSE