I’d like to emphasise that this is NOT an exit poll, the fieldwork took place on Monday and Tuesday, the sample size was 678.
Since Survation’s poll last week, Conservatives have gained 6 points and UKIP have dropped 1 point, whilst Labour has dropped 5 points from 27 to 22, which reflects the sheer level of effort put in by the Tories, and Labour getting squeezed in a two horse race.
It could also be evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters to stop Roger Helmer and UKIP winning, according to this morning’s The Times, The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night and today, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
The other thing to note is, is that these final figures for the Tories and UKIP match what Lord Ashcroft’s poll showed, the Tories on 42, UKIP on 27, but with a different methodology.
The tabs entitled methodology 2 and 3, in the above graphic are, to enable comparisons to be drawn with the published Lord Ashcroft poll. To be clear, however, Survation’s headline results using their preferred method remain those in the first tab.
Methodology 2 was Normal Weighted with Vote 2010 and Likelihood Weighting, and Methodology 3, After Replacing the Undecided/Refused Responses with 2010 Voters responses and replaced with 0.5 factors of 2010 vote.
In a few hours time, we’re going to find out which methodology is accurate.
If any Kippers are feeling despondent by this polling, Survation note
If the figures in our final poll are borne out, the overall swing from Conservatives to UKIP will have been about 18 points – enough for UKIP to capture Conservative seats elsewhere in the country if repeated in constituencies with smaller Conservative majorities.
In the European Parliament elections last month, UKIP scored 32% in the Newark & Sherwood district. Managing to come within 5 points of that in a Westminster Parliament vote would support previous research by ComRes that a large majority of those who voted UKIP in the European election will stick with the party when it comes to Westminster elections.