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Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

June 2nd, 2014

Ipsos-Mori have published their latest Indyref phone poll. 

The fieldwork was after the Euros, from last Wednesday to this Sunday just gone, Ipsos-Mori say

The latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014. Among those certain to vote in the referendum 36% would vote Yes (up by 4 percentage points) while 54% would vote No (down by 3 points) and 10% are undecided (down by 1 point).

Both sides will be happy with this poll, Yes see the deficit cut by 7%, whilst No have a 18% lead (20% when Don’t Knows are excluded) with a little over three months until the big day.

As usual there appears to be a pronounced gender gap, 61% of women said they would vote No whilst 28% said they would vote Yes. Whereas 46% of men intend to vote Yes versus 46% who plan to vote No.

There are also clear trends based on voter age. Those aged between 16 and 24 are still the most likely to vote Yes, by a slender margin of 45% to 44%. No commands a majority in all other age groups, with the over 55s most in favour of Scotland staying part of the UK.

What should alarm Yes is the following, 83% of No voters have definitely decided to vote No, 81% of Yes voters have definitely decided to vote Yes. So both sides votes are pretty much entrenched at the same level, so those undecideds become even more crucial.

But the undecideds appear to be breaking for No.


There is still hope for Yes, as the late swing in the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary Elections showed, if Yes is to win, they need to win over the undecideds, and make serious reverses in the current intentions of women and the older age groups, the age groups that historically have a higher turnout rate than younger voters.

TSE