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Populus becomes the third pollster in a week to show the Tories ahead

May 19th, 2014

This morning’s Populus online poll became the third pollster in a week to show The Conservatives ahead, it is also the first online pollster to show the Blues ahead since March 2012.

The two most interesting phenomenon of this period of Conservatives ahead in the polling is

i) That is happening in the run-up to the last set of elections before next year’s General Election. 

ii) The Conservatives are only 1 to 3 % down on their General election score, and UKIP are up 11 to 12% on their General Election score.

Point i) Could this have an impact on Thursday? For those holding betting slips at 28/1 plus on the Blues winning the Euros it raising hopes we could be having a profitable Sunday night.

I’m having huge problems reconciling the point made in ii), given that UKIP have taken more support from the Conservatives than any other party, I didn’t think both things in point ii) could be possible, but that’s where we are.

For Labour, whilst this polling maybe disheartening, all the polls that have shown the Cons ahead, Lab would still be the largest party in Parliament, and more than likely, Ed would still be PM, as the Cons need to 6-7% ahead to stop a net loss of seats to Labour.

All eyes will be on Lord Ashcroft’s phone poll which will be out at 4pm today.

TSE