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Two of the latest EP2014 polls have just 4% separating top three: The third has a range of 15%

May 18th, 2014

I’m looking forward to the post election polling inquest

I cannot recall a previous election where there was such a division between the pollsters. Some of them are not getting this right but which ones?

In the past week all three of the top parties have had a lead – the biggest being the massive 11% UKIP recorded by ComRes online which totally limits its published numbers to those 100% certain to vote.

Given measuring turnout is so important I’m quite surprised that none of the firms factored in the likely differential rates between the 58% of electors who’ve got local elections at the same time and those who haven’t.

Judging by previous Euros there has been a bigger turnout rate in the former category. This is much more sophisticated than simply asking people to rate their liklihood on a scale of 1 to 10.

Next Sunday evening we’ll know which pollster has won.

Mike Smithson

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