— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 18, 2014
This’ll ease the jitters in the NO camp
Probably the most influential poll over the past month was the ICM on;one Scottish survey for Scotland on Sunday which had the NO lead down to just 3%. This was the best position for YES in any media commissioned poll and has set the narrative in both Edinburgh and London.
A big driver of the move back to NO in have been the views of Scottish women. Last month 35% backed YES – now down to 27%
The poll also finds 32% saying independence would be good for Scotland – down 5 from April. 46% said it would be “bad for Scotland” – up 5%.
The April poll led to people contemplating seriously for the first time the possibility of the union being divided and all the associated consequences.
There was the big debate over whether Cameron would have to resign if Scotland did vote YES on September 18th and, of course, there was a lot of betting activity
So there will be huge sighs of relief this morning with the publication of ICM’s May Scotland poll which sees a sharp reverse for those wanting to break-up the UK.
Whether last month’s poll represented a real switch to YES or was an outlier we don’t know but these latest ICM figures are broadly in line with other recent findings from other firms.
So Scotland – panic over. Now back to Thursday’s Euro elections where ICM has a very different picture from ComRes as discussed in the previous thread.
What all this demonstrates isthe power of polling to set the political weather.
Keep watching this space.
Coming up on PB a Euros prediction competition with a prize of a free Ladbrokes bet for the winner.