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The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11% ahead – ICM puts them third

May 17th, 2014

The differences between the two polls are massive and it is not easy finding an obvious explanation.

A lot of this comes down to how the two firms handle turnout. ComRes online only includes those saying they are 100% certain to vote even if they didn’t turnout at the last general election.

ICM online weights by how certain to vote people say they are but discounts by 50% the views of those who didn’t vote at the last general election.

One thing’s for sure: One firm is going to look pretty sick a week tomorrow.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble