Polling analysis: Ukip is getting its best EP2014 shares from those firms that don’t prompt for the Greens

May 15th, 2014

Could this be inflating their purple shares?

There’s a new ComRes online Euros poll out this morning. The figures show Ukip in its best position of any of the firms that have reported this week with a big margin over place LAB. But there’s a big difference between ComRes 10/10 certain to vote figures and those where its normal turnout weightings are applied.

So of five firms to have reported this week three have Ukip in the lead, one has the Tories ahead and the other LAB.

    Interestingly two the firms that prompt for the Greens, ICM and YouGov, have Ukip behind. The other one which prompts, Opinium, has a Ukip lead.

The two firms showing the purples in their best position, ComRes and Survation, do not prompt for the Greens.

The result is that we have a huge spread in reported Green shares. ICM and YouGov have them at 10% while the rest have 5%.

My reading of this week’a polling and other developments is that Ukip has a 40% chance of victory, with CON and LAB on 30%.

NOTE OF CLARIFICATION: The man who runs ComRes political polling, Tom Mludzinski, has asked me to make clear that the firm is offering all the party options on the first page of its Euro2014 online voting questionnaire. This is in spite of the fact that on the poll’s official documentation the question is worded in this way: “If there were an election for the European Parliament tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for some other party?”

Mike Smithson

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