Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has not been been a move to CON but to don’t know

May 14th, 2014

Also Ukip sees big increase in 2010 LAB switchers

The chart shows the responses of those telling ICM in their last six polls that they voted Labour at GE2010 but have now switched to either “Dont know/Refused” or Ukip.

As can be seen there has been a marked increase in switching to the purples but by far and away the biggest element has been the increase in 2010 LAB voters now saying they don’t know or simply refusing to given an answer.

In many ways this is positive news for Ed Miliband and his team. Former voters who are now unsure are clearly good prospects and the hope must be that they’ll return to the fold in May 2015. The reduction in LAB don’t knows in the final few days of the 2010 campaign was a big reason why the party did much better than any of the polls.

But there has been switching to Ukip – from just 1% back in December to 6%. These are small numbers which are part of the sub-set of LAB GE2010 voters so there is a high margin of error.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble