Next poll up this week is Ipsos-MORI political monitor. Will it continue Labour's terrible polling week? pic.twitter.com/X3HcpFpNnQ
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014
The red team’s terrible polling week continues
When on Monday monrning the latest Populus poll came out showing LAB on 36% just a point ahead of the Tories it didn’t attract much attention. Since its big party ID weightings change in February the firm has been showing some of the worst LAB position and this just seemed to follow that pattern.
Then on Monday afternoon the first of Lord Ashcroft’s new weekly phone polls came out with the Tories two points ahead – the first survey of any sort since March 2012 with Labour behind. This got lots of attention but the initial thought was that this was an outlier.
That perception changed three hours later when news of the ICM monthly phone poll for the Guardian emerged showing a similar 2% lead for the Tories. Poll watchers waited to see what the nightly Sun Tweet about its YouGov poll would report at just before 10pm. It had LAB 35 to CON 34.
So last night there was a lot of anticipation for the latest YouGov based on fieldwork that closed yesterday afternoon. The result is featured above – LAB and CON level pegging on 34%. The last time that Labour was that low with the firm was in June 2010 only weeks after the party’s GE2010 defeat.
So with four pollsters in two days showing the same broad picture the trend is becoming clearer – LAB is down and this is happening only days before what will be the final national electoral test before the general election – the Euro and locals a week tomorrow.
My reading is that EdM and his team are paying the price for not having a clear message for the Euro elections. Their campaign has almost totally avoided any mention of the EU unlike the other three parties competing for votes which each have specific and relevant positions.
Coming up today or tomorrow should be the Ipsos-MORI Political Monitor for May a survey which like Ashcroft and ICM is carried out by phone.