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Chances are that half of all the votes will have been cast by Monday

May 10th, 2014

For them the elections are over

The latest for postal vote packs to have gone out was yesterday and will have arrived this morning.

Given what we know of how quickly postal voters generally act and the level of turnouts that these elections attract it is not too dramatic an assumption to say that getting on for half of all the votes have now been cast.

I, myself, voted last Saturday so there’s no chance of a late change of mine. The vote is in and that’s it.

This makes this weekend’s polling rather odd because part will be an exit survey.

Another consequence is that the opportunity for the parties to influence the outcome is much less than it was. Maybe only 15-20% of likely voters are left.

All this is probably good news for Ukip which has been riding high. The main issue is the extent to which their supporters have been misled into putting their cross by the “wrong Ukip”.

Mike Smithson