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The Populus monthly aggregates show LAB losing a seventh of its 2010 LD switchers over the past quarter

May 8th, 2014

The red team’s electoral crutch is getting shorter

One of the best polling innovations this year has been the Populus monthly aggregates for the FT based on its twice weekly online polls.

Whilst there can be greater variation in individual polls the aggregate helps us see the bigger picture and here, as the chart shows, the LAB shares have been edging downwards.

Digging into the poll detail one of the reasons might be a lessening of the level of 2010 LD to LAB switching. See the chart below which also shows 2010 CON to Ukip switching.

As I have said repeatedly over the past year the LD>LAB move has been the most significant development since GE2010 and retaining the switchers is vital to Labour’s GE2015 chances.

    For EdM’s party has attracted very little new support from any group other than those who voted Lib Dem four years ago.

They need both those yellows ready to vote tactically as well those who abandoned Clegg’s party over the deal with the Tories.

Managing this is the most vital task for LAB if they want to return to power.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble