Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals CON -160 LAB +500 LD – 340 Ukip ??? pic.twitter.com/2VqfIooP1e
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2014
For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today.
This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate because they feel they are being set targets that they might find challenging to meet. The LAB view is that they are not going to make anything like the 490 seat target.
The figures are in the charts above. Last year they overstated CON (+3), LAB (+9), LD (+3) while understating what UKIP achieved by 11.
This year it is different though it is important to note that although UKIP is projected to win more votes the LDs will win get more councillors elected.