New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug

— The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014

So we have a by-election in Newark.

Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted

It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 came into force on April 6th and now there is a minimum of 25 days excluding weekends/bank holidays between the writ being moved and the by election being held .

And an hour ago Nigel Farage said

Nigel Farage says that if Patrick Mercer resigns he will give 'serious consideration' to standing in Newark – but only if its after May 22.

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) April 29, 2014

So if the Tories expect to lose this seat, and they want to bury bad news, then I suggest they hold the by-election on Thursday 19th of June, that’s when England play Uruguay in the World Cup, and I suspect the media focus will be on that, and the day after the focus will be on the result of the England match.

Ladbrokes have just tweeted their prices for this by-election.

Ladbrokes odds for Newark byelection pic.twitter.com/LWVsdl7b4M

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) April 29, 2014

It might be better to back UKIP to win a seat before the general election at 7/2 with William Hill

My initial feelings is that the value maybe to back Labour, but if Farage stands then UKIP will win, I also suspect their will be unstoppable momentum from the media to make sure Farage stands, whether he wants to our not, lest he gets called frit. I suspect Boris won’t stand, it is too far away for him to be both concurrently Mayor of London and an MP.

This is the sort of by-election Mike and I have been hoping for since Eastleigh, expect interesting times, I suspect were UKIP/Farage to win, it would create a lot of unease amongst Tory MPs and possibly end Dave’s leadership, if UKIP were to win the seat, as they finished over 25,000 votes behind the Tories in the 2010 no Tory MP would feel immune to UKIP.

UPDATE

Last November the Tories already selected their candidate for Newark, so it won’t be Boris standing in Newark.

TSE