Stand by for Ed’s next unlikely election victory. CON win most votes: LAB win most seats even possibly a majority

April 25th, 2014

EdM and DM after result announced

The Ladbrokes 5/1 is the best GE2010 bet there is

We all remember that moment on September 25th 2010 when Ed Miliband just squeezed past his brother, David, in the election for LAB leader. It was a huge shock for almost everybody including the Westminster village which had decided a long time earlier that the elder Miliband would be Brown’s successor.

In cash terms this was my biggest political bet ever and I bought a new car on the winnings. For I’d first got on Ed at 33/1 and had kept on backing him until the moment on that Saturday when the bookies closed their markets.

Now I’m trying to build up a position the Ladbrokes “CON win most votes – LAB win most seats” bet. I got on at 8/1 a fortnight ago and have extended my investment at 5/1.

The return to the fold of some CON>UKIP switchers and 2010 CON voters currently saying don’t know will drive a steady increase in Tory poll standings which could easily take the party ahead of LAB in terms of votes cast on May 7th 2015.

    On current trends my forecast is that the so called bias to LAB in the system will be even more pronounced at GE2015 because of disproportionate switching, whether for tactical or ideological reasons, by many of those who voted LD at GE2010

The Tory task will be made even harder by LD stickiness in the seats its defending and LAB tactical voters returning in order to kick the Tories. Just look at this local result overnight.

It is even possible, I’d suggest for LAB to win a majority with a smaller overall national vote share than the Tories.

Mike Smithson

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