— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014
The yellows are getting betting support on 3+ seats
My view of yesterday’s news about the breakaway anti-EU party at the Euro elections remains. Unless the official UKIP legal challenge succeeds I believe it will impact on its performance on May 22nd. The question is how much?
When I first saw the South West England ballot paper yesterday with the breakaway group at the top my reaction was that this referred to Farage’s party which was just describing itself awkwardly. It has a record of doing this as we saw in the London elections in 2012.
It was only on closer scrutiny of the form that I saw the real UKIP at the bottom of the ballot.
If I was confused then my assumption is that other voters will also be to the detriment of Mr Farage.
Generally in UK elections you vote for an individual candidate and not a party and the names are listed alphabetically. It will be hard for voters to distinguish between the “two UKIPs” and the options at the top will sypohon off quite a number of UKIP votes. In the polling stations election officials are very limited in the guidance that they can give to voters.
This shouldn’t have taken UKIP by surprise. There had been reports over the past few weeks that something like this was going to happen.
Meanwhile in the betting the LAB most votes price gets tighter and I’ve had a little flutter at 7/2 on the LDs getting 3+ MEPs.