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CON might have big leads with all voters on best PM and the economy but it’s a different picture with the key swing group

April 15th, 2014

The 2010 LDs now saying LAB are Ed’s most enthusiastic backers

The two big reasons, it is argued, why Labour should not put place too much confidence in current poll ratings are Ed’s personal poll numbers in relation to Dave and the ongoing Tory lead on the economy. No party, it is said, has ever won power when it is behind on both.

That might be the case though there are very few data points and modern polling is very different with so much more information being made available.

    But surely the voters to look at are not the overall figures but those specifically who have changed their allegiance since 2010. Swing voters in key seats could have a disproprtionate impact on the outcome.

Over the past few days I’ve been trying to find if there is any publishd polling that allows us to examine more closely the 2010 Lib Dems who now say they are voting Labour. band.

The poll data isn’t something that is normally available and you need a very big sample to get meaningful figures. Fortunately there was one poll where this specific information has been extracted and which had a big enough sample – the Lord Ashcroft examination of Lib Dems last year.

The data in the charts is old but it is all that is publicly available. More current private polling has been carried out which I understand is showing a similar picture.

Looking at this poll it is hard to see many of the switchers returning.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble