Farage hands a bonus to Cameron
On Monday Farage told newsmen that “We are going to be spending the bulk of our money in the next eight weeks in the big cities in the Midlands and the north targeting the Labour vote”.
There’ a lot of rhetoric from the purples at the moment about how they are attracting support from LAB voters – a statement that’s simply not supported by the polling.
Thus the March Populus aggregate with a 16,424 sample, finds that just 7.4% of current UKIP GE 2015 voters are ex-LAB. That contrasts with 43.5% coming from 2010 CON voters.
In my view switching resource to LAB voters is wrong decision which could reduce the effectiveness of UKIP’s campaign.
For starters LAB voters in the cities of Midlands and North are those least likely to vote on May 22nd as Sunday’s YouGov polling showed. This is not just YouGov and has been reflected across a range of firms which have carried out EP 2014 surveys.
As a general rule Labour’s heartlands are where the red team has most difficulty getting supporters to turn out in any kind of election so the potential is much reduced.
Secondly the polling has also showed that those opting for CON in a general election are THREE times more likely than LAB voters to switch to UKIP in the Euros.
The correct course is to build on segments where you are strong – notably CON voters.
My guess is that Farage & co have been influenced by recent council elections where they’ve chalked up some reasonable shares in northern cities. But the turnouts in those election are far smaller than anything that can be expected on May 22 which can distort the picture.