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Tories the main winner, UKIP the main loser in the March 2014 Populus monthly aggregate – sample size 16k

April 1st, 2014

LAB share down on the month but only by 0.5%

Today sees the second of what looks set to be a great resource right through until the general election – the Populus/FT monthly aggregate based on all the firm’s twice-weekly surveys with an overall sample size of more more than 16k.

Having a sample on that scale means that the cross-tabs are more meaningful with much smaller margins of errors than we get with individual polls.

Thus two key pointers that I’ll be looking at will be the make-up of the UKIP vote – will we find that the proportion of 2010 CON voters is still about 45% compared with 8% for 2010 LAB ones giving the lie to current UKIP assertions that they are taking support equally from the reds and blues.

I’ll want, as well, to see if there is any erosion in the proportions of 2010 LD voters now saying Labour.

For comparison this is the trend in the PB YouGov weekly average.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble