Archive for April, 2014

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This Survation poll on Farage, taken this morning, seems out of line with the latest Euro voting numbers

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Participants were asked were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with two statements:-

    “I would vote for Nigel Farage if he was standing in my constituency” (%)

    “Nigel Farage chose not to stand in Newark primarily because he is scared of losing” (%)

The poll, for HuffPost is another example of how Survation is fast establishing a reputation as the most agile pollster. Yet again it has got right on top of issues by putting together, carriying out the fieldwork, and producing a report on the findings all within a single day.

Should we read too much into it? That’s hard to say though I was very surprised that so few people wanted the Ukip leader as their own MP.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

43% of 2010 CON voters say they’ll vote purple on May 22

Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36%

These are massive moves which, if sustained, point to a dramatic outcome in the elections on May 22nd.

    For me the stunning figure is that both polls show that for every ONE CON voter there are now at least TWO saying UKIP

Another striking feature from ComRes is that 43% of 2010 CON voters are going with the purples.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Another good second place won’t be enough

The media frenzy and the clamour for Farage to be the Ukip candidate will continue until he decides one way or the other.

My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain.

The challenge for them is timing. By the new arrangements for when by-election should be called this cannot take place before or on May 22nd – the day of the Euros and local elections for 58% of voters across the UK.

    So assuming that the purples do well in the Euros the by-election would be seen as a key indicator as to whether their surge is continuing. That’s where it gets very tricky. The last thing they want is for the bubble to burst within weeks of their expected May 22 successes.

With Farage as candidate any outcome in Newark less than a victory would be seen as a defeat. The party’s had some good by-election performances in terms of vote shares – but for Westminster seats you need to come top and that’s eluded them.

Their best ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh fourteen months ago when there was a great clamour for Farage to be the flag carrier. They came pretty close and their 27.8% was the highest the party has ever achieved in a Westminster seat.

I’d be very surprised if Farage does go for it – but then one of his great characteristics is his ability to surprise.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

So we have a by-election in Newark.

Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted

It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 came into force on April 6th and now there is a minimum of 25 days excluding weekends/bank holidays between the writ being moved and the by election being held .

And an hour ago Nigel Farage said

So if the Tories expect to lose this seat, and they want to bury bad news, then I suggest they hold the by-election on Thursday 19th of June, that’s when England play Uruguay in the World Cup, and I suspect the media focus will be on that, and the day after the focus will be on the result of the England match.

Ladbrokes have just tweeted their prices for this by-election.

It might be better to back UKIP to win a seat before the general election at 7/2 with William Hill

My initial feelings is that the value maybe to back Labour, but if Farage stands then UKIP will win, I also suspect their will be unstoppable momentum from the media to make sure Farage stands, whether he wants to our not, lest he gets called frit. I suspect Boris won’t stand, it is too far away for him to be both concurrently Mayor of London and an MP.

This is the sort of by-election Mike and I have been hoping for since Eastleigh, expect interesting times, I suspect were UKIP/Farage to win, it would create a lot of unease amongst Tory MPs and possibly end Dave’s leadership, if UKIP were to win the seat, as they finished over 25,000 votes behind the Tories in the 2010 no Tory MP would feel immune to UKIP.

UPDATE

Last November the Tories already selected their candidate for Newark, so it won’t be Boris standing in Newark.

TSE



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The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today.

This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate because they feel they are being set targets that they might find challenging to meet. The LAB view is that they are not going to make anything like the 490 seat target.

The figures are in the charts above. Last year they overstated CON (+3), LAB (+9), LD (+3) while understating what UKIP achieved by 11.

This year it is different though it is important to note that although UKIP is projected to win more votes the LDs will win get more councillors elected.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Betting on the May 22nd Euros continues to be miniscule compared with the IndyRef

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

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Maybe SNP supporters are bigger gamblers than UKIP ones?

Above is what is becoming a PB regular – our chart based on Betfair’s amount traded on key political markets data.

There are all the other bookmakers but only the Betfair betting exchange provides the information so that you can get a picture of what is going on. I’ve little doubt that this represents the pattern elsewhere.

Compared with what is happening to the Manchester City price on the Premiership title market this is, of course, small beer and a reminder of how unimportant political betting is to the betting industry.

It is striking how the IndyRef, which takes place on September 18th, had fired the imagination of punters but not the Euros which are barely three weeks away.

This morning I’m off to London for a session with Professors Curtice, Rallings and Thrasher on this year’s local elections. Hopefully we’ll get the first projections of seat losses and gains. The event is organised the Political Studies Association. I’ll be reporting later.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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PB Nighthawks is now open

Monday, April 28th, 2014

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. Ukip condemned by cross-party group for running ‘racist’ campaign. Aggressive move accusing Nigel Farage’s party of ‘Euracism’ comes as study puts anti-EU vote in Europe at 30%
  2. Why Axelrod has his work cut out with Labour. Cameron won’t repeat Romney’s gaffes and enjoys the advantage of incumbency.
  3. Would Clegg be able to block a Cameron-Miliband TV debate?Were the debate to be held before the general election campaign begins, the impartiality rules would not apply. 
  4. British Indians could help Labour win the General Election
  5. If Ed Miliband is the Union’s saviour then the Union is doomed
  6. Brothers in arms — Ukip and the SNP are one and the same
  7. British politics is in a panic over UKIP. It deserves to be
  8. Progressives shouldn’t be running scared of UKIP. There are left-wing answers to the questions posed by the party
  9. Ignore the Ukippers: Britain wants to stay in the EU
  10. What is Labour’s working class problem?
  11. How to lose vote share without losing a single voter.
  12. Help to Work? Britain’s jobless are being forced into workfare, more like. Making the unemployed attend a jobcentre every day, or work unpaid, isn’t a helping hand, it’s a punishing one
  13. Maps of the constituencies that HS2 passes through – and the majorities in each
  14. Big drop in number of Lib Dem council candidates
  15. David Cameron’s brother calls for fraud trial to be halted over legal aid cuts
  16. Any talk of economic recovery is pure fiction.
  17. Wall Street Republicans’ dark secret: Hillary Clinton 2016
  18. The Eurovision Song Contest has become a hotbed of sodomy at the initiation of the European liberals
  19. Former Nazi wins a Labour council seat
  20. Rugby World Cup 2015: Plan to segregate fans threatens to spoil the party. Organisers hope to improve atmosphere at matches but could end up destroying one of game’s greatest traditions
  21. Tomorrow is the 104th anniversary of the People’s Budget. The first budget in British history with the expressed intent of redistributing wealth among the British public.  It was championed by Chancellor of the Exchequer David Lloyd George and his strong ally Winston Churchill, who was then President of the Board of Trade and a fellow Liberal; called the “Terrible Twins” by certain right-wing contemporaries

 



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CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

Monday, April 28th, 2014

Big data giving the personal touch

This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron.

    On the face of it this is quite appealing and my guess is that it will get a good response rate.

This form of campaigning is an import from the 2012 White House race. It was seen first in the Romney campaign for the GOP nomination and played a key part in those early states when it was so important for him to underline his front-runner status.

There the “Tele-Town Hall Meetings”, as they were called, structure was honed so that the the issues discussed were tailored specifically to the target voter. I don’t know whether the Cameron approach will be the same or whether there’ll be a common “discussion” for all who participate.

In a low turnout election like the Euros the Tories can really enhance their position by getting their more marginal voters to turnout and to bring back on board some of the CON>UKIP switchers. This is about voter mobilisation and it could help.

I remain of the view that the Tories will do better on May 22nd than in the current online polling.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble