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Today’s YouGov has CON down to 33 and LAB at 40: Could be an outlier or a sign that the budget effect is receding

March 30th, 2014

After a whole spate of post-Budget polls showing the LAB share declining and the gap getting close today’s YouGov for the Sunday Times comes as something of a shock. Is it an outlier or are we seeing the Budget effect starting to fade away?

That is always hard to say and all we can do is wait to see some more polling. The fieldwork for today’s poll was later than the latest Opinium or Populus polls which both had the LAB lead down to 1%.

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It is always dangerous to confuse correlation with causation and to read things into polling which on closer examination are not the case. The change in the LAB share here is outside the margin of error like in the Westminster voting numbers above.

Mike Smithson

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