The March projection from Electoral Calculus is for LAB majority of 40 pic.twitter.com/cX2NETOxN5
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2014
At the start of 2014 it was 78 seats
Martin Baxter, the City mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus for nearly two decades, has put out his latest monthly projection and once again there is a decline in the projected LAB majority.
Martin computes the figure by applying his own polling average to his Commons Seats calculator.
Inevitably the decline in Labour’s polling position is reflected in the above numbers which now look a lot more precarious for Ed Miliband.
Martin rates the chance of a CON majority at 10%.
Unlike some other projections which seek to discount the LAB polling position by applying an adjustment to cover a fall-off Martin uses the polling numbers as they are.
I think that that is right because much of the polling bias to LAB in the past was the product of polling methodology that has since been refined.