It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices
This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015.
In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite.
From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th next year are Tim Farron who is priced at 1/20 to hold on to Westmorland & Lonsdale and the Scottish Secretary, Alistair Carmichael, who is at 1/100 to hold Orkney & Shetland. This far out you can get a better financial return putting your money in the building society!
All the party’s cabinet ministers, including Danny Alexander in Inverness/Nairn are priced as odds on favourites.
Where the yellows face the reds as their main opposition Ladbrokes have in all the seats bar Simon Hughes’ Bermondsey made LAB the favourites. It is hard to argue with that.
It is amongst this group where you can get the longer odds and our friend Shadsy has just tightened the 8/1 that I put Â£100 on in one seat to 4/1. I’m not revealing which one because I hope to get good value from other bookies.
The best advice here is to use what local knowledge of the seats that you have.
I have bet against the LDs in three seats and on them in three others – all the prices were longer than evens.