George Osborne moves into the favourite slot at Betfair to succeed Cameron as CON leader

March 18th, 2014

Not convinced – I still reckon Hamond

Above are the latest trades on Betfair’s Next CON leader market and as can be seen there is a new favourite – George Osborne. This has probably come out of the recent Michael Gove initiatives which are seen by many as a way of undermining Boris.

Trading is, of course, very light as you’d expect in a market where it could be several years for punters to see a return.

The position of at least three of the main party leaders could come into question after GE 2015. Farage has already said that he’ll quit if UKIP fails to win a seat; Tory leaders in recent times have fallen on their swords after a defeat and Clegg position is totally dependent on how many MPs his party manages to hold on to.

So the contest amongst the Tories, assuming they lose power, will be totally coloured by perceptions of the reasons for defeat.

    My reading is that “not being in touch with ordinary people” will be seen as having been a main impediment and the blues will look to someone who is.

The next CON leader will not have gone to a public school. Enter Phillip Hammond.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble